India may face long heat waves, heavy flooding, low agro and fish yield in 15-20 yrs if emissions not controlled: Study ahead of G20 meet

MUMBAI: Ahead of the 16th G20 summit, set to begin in Rome on Saturday, a report by a team of over 40 scientists at CMCC (the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change), a research centre that serves as the Italian focal point for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has found that in India, heat waves will last 25 times longer by 2036-2065 if emissions are high (leading to a temperature rise of 4°C), over five times longer if global temperature rise is constrained to about 2°C, and one-and-a-half times longer if emissions are very low and temperature rise only reaches 1.5°C.
"Even assuming sufficient water and nutrient supplies, not including the impact of climate change on pests or diseases, or extreme events such as floods or storms, and including a strong effect of CO2 fertilization that restricts leaf transpiration in plants, sugarcane, rice, wheat, and maize yields in India will fall as the climate warms. In reality, these conditions may not be met, for example water demand for agriculture is likely to rise around about 29% by 2050 - meaning yield losses are likely to be underestimated," the report stated.
"Within 30 years rising temperatures and intense heat waves could cause severe droughts; threatening essential water supplies for agriculture, causing huge loss of human life, and increasing the chance of deadly fires. In India, declines in rice and wheat production could spark economic losses of up to € 81 billion and a loss of 15% of farmers’ incomes by 2050," it warns.
"Furthermore, on a pathway to 4°C global heating, agricultural drought will become 48% more frequent by 2036-2065. On a 2°C pathway (the maximum temperature agreed by the Paris Agreement by lowering emissions) this drops to 20% more frequent, and constraining temperature rise to 1.5°C (the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement), agricultural drought will still be 13% more frequent," it stated further.
Also, the potential fish catch could fall 8.8% by 2050 if emissions are low, and 17.1% if they are high, the study pointed out. Just under 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today, it added. The European Climate Foundation has funded the report.
The report has found that climate impacts are already hitting the G20 nations. Over the last 20 years, heat-related deaths have increased by at least 15% in all G20 countries, while forest fires in the G20 have burnt an area one and a half times the size of Canada. And if emissions keep rising, worse is to come. In India, the report said, the total labour is expected to decline by 13.4% under a low emissions scenario by 2050 due to the increase in heat, and by 24% under a medium emissions scenario by 2080.
“The broad suite of indicators presented in this Atlas clearly drive home the message that climate change is impacting all aspects of life – be it our health, our food supply, or our ways of making a living. From here, decision-makers in all G20 countries can begin to zoom in and identify the communities most in need of adaptation investments to combat concurrent heat extremes, sea level rise, wildfire smoke and other climate change threats.” Dr Michelle Tigchelaar, University of Stanford
“These estimates are broadly consistent with recent research which finds that even the "non-catastrophic" climate change scenarios are likely to be incredibly costly from a social and economic perspective. Losses of 2-4% of GDP annually by 2050 - those aren't small numbers, especially since we are talking about rich developed economies like the US. They also highlight the tremendous variability in climate change impacts - not only across countries, but also within. Some parts of the US are expected to be hit harder than others, and in different ways.” Dr Jisung Park, University of California, Los Angeles.
Dr Anjal Prakash, Research director, Bharati institute of public policy, Indian school of business and IPCC author, said due to growing temperatures the glaciers in the himalayan region will shrink and rainfall or precipitation patterns will drastically change. "Extreme events like a recent flash flood in Uttarakhand wherein a 300-400 mm rainfall lashed within 24 hours will occur more frequently. So India will have to focus on building and maintaining climate resilient infrastructure. All new infra will have to go through a climate scanner . Also the old projects will have to be reevaluated from the climate lense." he said. The recent flash flood in Mukteshwar/Nainital in Uttarakhand killed over 34 people besides a huge damage to human habitations, forests and agricultural land.