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| | A monthly newsletter from Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation delivering news, research and unbiased analysis covering the key pillars of the exponential energy transition—the energy industry, energy policy, clean energy, climate change and climate justice _______________________________________________________________ | |
| | IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE 2022: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY | |
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| | | | In November 2021, COP26 concluded in Glasgow, Scotland, with the adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact—a commitment to reach a global net-zero emissions target by 2050. Central to the pact is keeping a 1.5℃ global warming target within reach. Glasgow achieved some progress, but estimates suggest that even if commitments are delivered, the world is headed for 2.4℃ warming. On the 28th of February 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its latest report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“. This is the second part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, pursuant to its initial report published in August 2021. | |
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| | | This new report draws from nearly 34,000 studies and involves 270 authors from 67 different countries across the globe. It provides one of the most comprehensive analysis of the intensifying impacts of climate change and future risks particularly for vulnerable communities. The findings in the report show that climate breakdown is happening faster than expected and that the window to take action is closing fast.The report is a call to governments and private sector players to take drastic action against climate change. It also presents a series of solutions and enabling factors to pursue and achieve climate resilient development (CRD) for a world that is safe, stable, and just. This edition of EnergyMatters unpacks some of the key findings of the report and its implications for the world and India. We also present recent news and developments from Shakti. | |
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| | | | The most vulnerable populations are the most affected The world’s most vulnerable will be hit hardest by climate change. At the current level of 1.1°C of global warming, around 3.3 to 3.6 billion people already live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change. And by 2050, it is expected that one billion people living on vulnerable low-lying islands and coastal areas will be threatened by the rising sea levels. Impact on biodiversity and ecosystems Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia, which has greatly impacted species both on land and in water. Up to 14 per cent of species face a very high risk of extinction at a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) over pre-industrial levels. The risk increases to 29 per cent at 3°C and 39 per cent at 4°C of global warming. Access to food and water at stake Millions of vulnerable people (indigenous communities, children, the elderly and pregnant women) are already facing severe food insecurity. If global heating continues at the current rate, 183 million more people are projected to go hungry by 2050. In addition, almost half of the world’s population is already facing severe water scarcity for at least one month in a year. Over time, the threats to water scarcity and water-related hazards (drought, flooding) will only increase if climate change is not addressed. The impact on plant and marine life Climate change is altering the distribution and abundance of marine organisms from microbes to mammals and from individuals to ecosystems. As oceans warm, marine species are being forced out of their natural habitats. Mass mortalities and extinctions are expected that will irreversibly alter globally important areas, including those that host exceptionally rich biodiversity such as tropical coral reefs and cold-water kelp forests and the world’s rainforests. Even at lower levels of warming of 2°C or less, polar fauna (including fish, penguins, seals, and polar bears), tropical coral reefs and mangroves will be under serious threat. If the world warms up to 4 °C, every second plant or animal species that we know of will be threatened. The extinction risk is especially high for cold-loving species living in the high mountains or in polar regions, where climate change impacts are unfolding at global maximum speed and extent. |
| | IPCC Climate Resilient Development : A Solutions Framework | |
| | Among the most significant conclusions of the report is the need to pursue climate-resilient development (CRD), which refers to the “process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development for all.” This approach is critical if we are to bequeath a liveable planet to succeeding generations. If our development path is fully climate-resilient, we would live in a world with mild temperatures, a high level of well-being, intact ecosystems, equity, and justice. Conversely, if we shun a climate-resilient path, we would inherit a warmer world where poverty is prevalent, ecosystems degraded, and where inequity and injustice are rampant. Between these two extremes are several possible worlds. At the heart of CRD is the recognition that human systems are interacting endlessly with natural systems. Managing this complex, give and take between the two systems, is key to attaining a sustainable future. As global warming progresses, the IPCC warns that hazards and risks will multiply, leading to unprecedented levels of uncertainty. Development planners and decision-makers should have a systems perspective that is alert to externalities and trade-offs. The enabling conditions in pursuing CRD are consistent with sustainable development in general. According to the report, we must “make inclusive development choices that prioritize risk reduction, equity, and justice.” In addition, “decision-making processes, finance and actions [must be] integrated across governance levels, sectors and timeframes.” It is heartening to note that the report in fact presented solutions that will allow us to adapt to a warming environment, albeit up to a certain point. In the end, the IPCC authors warn that we have a narrow window to avert a catastrophic warming of the planet. This window is closing fast, and our actions in the next 10 years will largely determine the fate of humanity. | |
| | IPCC Report : What does it mean for India | |
| | The IPCC report lists India under one of those countries that will be economically harmed the most by climate change. The report has clear takeaways for us: - Drop in crop production: Rice production in India could be affected, potentially decreasing from 10%–30% whereas maize production can decrease from 25%–70%, for a range of 1-4 degrees C temperature rise. These disruptions to crop production can cause price spikes across the country, threatening food affordability, food security and economic growth,
- Migration: Alarmingly, four million people were displaced in disaster-induced events in India in 2019. The report, however, underscores that migration is not a feasible adaptation strategy in India as it deepens climate change injustice. One reason it spells this out is because states lack the capacity and the resources to affect a smooth transition for climate change victims.
- Sea-level rise in coastal areas: Mumbai could face flooding due to sea-level rise, the damage to Mumbai from the sea-level rise could be up to $162 billion a year by 2050.
- Water Scarcity: The changing climate, coupled with rising demand, could mean that about 40% of the people residing in India will live with water scarcity by 2050.
- River Flooding: Both the Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins will witness increased flooding due to climate change.
The adaptation plans for Indian cities currently focus only on one or two risks while ignoring the compounding nature of disasters such as tropical cyclones coinciding with heatwaves and urban droughts. As such risks increase, the report says, the adaptive capacity of local communities will be threatened, especially low-income marginalised communities. Given the range of impacts from climate change, India's food production and food security will also be severely hit. Combined with disasters taking place across the world, this will impact international supply chains, markets, trade and result in economic shocks. |
| | IPCC Report : Outlook | |
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| | | | | | | The IPCC analysis is a grim reminder of the stark realities of climate change. Yet the report also provides some hope that with concerted action including effective and equitable adaptation and mitigation into development strategies, vulnerability can be reduced, ecosystems conserved and restored, and equitable development assured. Even more importantly, the report brings social justice and climate justice at the center of the response to the climate crisis. The hardest-hit people and places are the ones least able to cope. Poorer countries that have contributed the least to human-caused climate change are being disproportionately affected by it, with lower-income populations, indigenous communities, women and children bearing the greatest burdens. The argument for loss and damage finance has gotten stronger with the report. The COP27 summit, to be held in Egypt this year is a crucial opportunity for nations to make progress on all these fronts. Yes, we still assume that climate change is a solvable problem. In order to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, humanity must begin to significantly reduce carbon emissions during its brief and rapidly closing window, the recent IPCC report warns. The doomsday clock is ticking. This age of stupid (or age of hypocrisy) is humanity’s careless journey towards doom’s doorstep. | | | | |
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| | | NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS FROM SHAKTI | |
| | Long-Term Modelling Pathways to Achieve India’s Energy and Net-Zero Goals | |
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| | | | | In December 2021, Shakti signed a Statement of Intent (SOI) with NITI Aayog to support India's energy transition. This collaboration is intended to focus on setting up a modelling unit, advancing energy data management and energy dashboards, and creating a geospatial energy map for India. Dr. Rakesh Sarwal, Additional Secretary, NITI Aayog and Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj, CEO, Shakti signed the SOI on behalf of the two organizations. As a part of this collaboration, Shakti is working with the NITI Aayog - India Climate and Energy Modelling Forum (ICEMF), which brings together experts, think tanks, researchers modellers and policy makers to examine important climate, energy and environment related issues and their economic linkages, through integrated modelling exercises.
Shakti as a member of the steering committee of the ICEMF, is bringing in national and international research institutions with systems modelling and analysis expertise, in order to understand the economic implications of extreme and slow-onset climate events. Going forward, Shakti will provide technical support to host a webinar series that will deep-dive into India’s net-zero strategy as a commitment of the Panchamrit or “five elixirs.” | | | | |
| | Hindi Webinar : Unpacking the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | |
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| | | | | The Paris Agreement era is marked by the mainstreaming of the climate change discourse across the world. Bridging the communication gap is a vital component of this mainstreaming process. In India, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts, the discourse of climate change is often not inclusive. For Indians to participate fully in the fight against climate change, they need to clearly understand its meaning and impact in order to respond effectively, efficiently and in a timely manner. There is also the increasing need for communicating in Hindi and other vernacular languages on climate change to help make information more relevant and user friendly and interactive. A recent webinar co-hosted by the Bihar State Pollution Control Board, United Nations Environment Programme, Shakti, World Resources Institute-India, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, and Climate Trends shed light on this matter. The webinar, hosted in Hindi, saw an illustrious panel discussing the recently released IPCC report on climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability. The panel comprised J. R. Bhatt (Advisor, Climate Change MoEFCC), IPCC authors Dr. Anjal prakash, Dr Chandni Singh and Dr. Rajiv Pandey and journalists Hridayesh Joshi and Nidhi Jamwal. The opening address was delivered by Shri Lokendra Thakkar, Sr. Scientific Officer, EPCO and Dipak Kumar Singh Principal Secretary of Environment, Bihar's Forest and Climate Change Department. The panel weighed on the role and potential of Hindi and vernacular communication in advancing public and stakeholder discourse to boost climate action. They also underscored the need for climate change to be communicated in a simple manner, while being relevant and context specific to everyone concerned so that our fight for climate justice is more comprehensive. | | | | |
| | Decarbonising the Steel Sector | |
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| | | Shakti was a knowledge partner for the webinar entitled “Decarbonising the Steel Sector” hosted by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry held on 28 Feb 2022. The webinar brought together policy makers, researchers and representatives from steel and mining companies and PSUs to discuss the challenges and opportunities for decarbonisation pathways in India. The Indian steel industry is riding high on economic growth, and the rising demand for steel is the backbone of major sectors like construction, infrastructure, automotive and rail. The steel industry is also both energy- and emission-intensive. |
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| | | An estimate suggests that CO2 emissions from India’s steel sector could increase by upto 837 million tonnes by 2050 if steel demand continues to grow, with serious implications for the environment. Decarbonising the steel sector will help reduce emissions and advance India's climate goals. The panellists at the webinar discussed the benefits and strategies for decarbonising the steel sector. Besides this, the discussion revolved around the technology landscape, business models and best practices in the sector.
It also highlighted that accelerating steel decarbonization will require going further and moving faster on all available mitigation levers with concerted policy efforts at national and international levels underpinning this shift.
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| | | ________________________________________________________________ | |
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| | | We welcome your feedback and comments on this newsletter. Please write to us at communications@shaktifoundation.in Disclaimer: EnergyMatters is owned and published by Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation. No person, organization or party can copy or re-produce the complete contents on this site and/or magazine or any part of this publication without a written consent from the editors’ panel and the author of the content, as applicable | |
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